Saturday, January 19, 2008

Well 95% of precincts are in, in Nevada. A second win for Hillary "the comeback kid" Clinton. Well, I am suprised, not really. I was gutted though. I prefer Obama in the Hillary-Obama match up. Poor John Edwards got only 4% of the votes.

So a few questions:

Has Obama lost his shine?

Is Clinton a sure bet for the nomination?

Is Edwards heading for the politicial scrapyard?

In answer to the first question, I dont think that Obama has lost his shine. To view his loss in context, at a point during the end of last year, he was approximately 30 points behind Clinton. Cutting into her lead by 25 points is quite an achievement. He may have lost the locomotive motion of Iowa, but Obama still has the shine of a new pair of boots.
Secondly, I dont think Hillary is a sure bet for the nomination. Obama has made major gains with African Americans, he did better than Clinton in that constituency in Nevada. Also Hillary is still a decisive figure who is closely linked with Bill Clinton era Democartic politics. Is the best way forward the way back?
Lastly, I think Edwards has done woefully in Nevada, but been a North Carolina boy, he should do better come next week in South Carolina. I echo time magazine in thinking that Edwards is sticking around as a third leg in a two horse race to be a Kingmaker come Convention. His delegates if given to Obama will challenge Clinton's supremacy and if he decides to give them to Clinton, her supremacy in the nomination race will be secure. Unless, he surges in the Southern States like Texas and Missippi. (It is unknown how these constituencies will react to an African American or a woman.) Edwards' race is lost.

Well, Roll on South Carolina.

note: I know I have analysed the Republician race, but its just not as breathbreaking!

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